Yell Fire

Bangui – The first round of presidential elections in the Central African Republic on December 30th was largely peaceful. That was a big surprise to many, given the looting, raping and razing of villages by rival Christian and Muslim armed groups that has forced almost a million people to flee their homes since 2012.

No winner emerged from the 30 candidates. A run-off will be held on January 31st. But, with countless militias still controlling most of the country, it would not take much for voting to be overtaken by violence.

The world pays little attention to CAR, a Texas-sized nation of around 4.8 million people landlocked by both the Sudans and the Congos. Its economy is negligible and it does not export terrorism to the West. However, that may not always be the case. Chaos can spread, and lawless places can breed jihad, as in Somalia and north-eastern Nigeria.

The country has been scorched by violence for the past three years. In December 2012 the Séléka, a mainly Muslim rebel alliance, pillaged its way south and three months later overthrew President François Bozizé, a former army chief of staff who had seized power in a coup in 2003.

Christian anti-Balaka groups then retaliated, forcing Muslims, who make up about 15% of the population, to sleep on the streets for fear of their houses being torched or blown up by grenades, which were reportedly sold in markets for as little as $0.41. Since then more than 5,000 people have been killed and once religiously-mixed towns and cities are now divided or nearly empty of one group or another.

Recent months have been a little calmer. Pope Francis’s visit in November, his first to a war zone, passed without incident and his message of peace and reconciliation was invoked by politicians.

“It played a definite role in calming the seas ahead of the elections,” says Alex Fielding, an analyst at Max Security Solutions.

But holding a vote when the country is so fragile could still prove a mistake, says Ben Shepherd, a researcher at Chatham House, a think-tank. The international community is “ignoring the fact that Rome burned down ten years ago,” he adds.

So far, though, the country’s many guns have been quiet during the election, which had a turnout of 79%, and even during the subsequent count. That was something 11,600 UN peacekeepers and 900 French troops weren’t able to ensure during the constitutional referendum held earlier in December. Meanwhile soldiers from both forces have been accused of sexually abusing young girls in the country, with new allegations made public this week.

The two former prime ministers who will face off at the end of the month, Anicet Georges Dologuele and Faustin-Archange Touadera, took 23.8% and 19.4% of the vote respectively. Mr Touadera, a mild-mannered former maths professor, is seen as an independent outsider, despite working under Mr Bozizé for four years until the Séléka takeover in 2013, says Mr Fielding. Mr Dologuele is backed by the ousted president, who was only barred on December 8th by the Constitutional Court from standing himself, on the grounds that a ceasefire signed in 2013 had ruled him out.

A smooth run-off isn’t guaranteed. On January 4th as many as 20 of the 30 presidential candidates, not including the two front-runners, called for the count to be stopped, calling it an “electoral masquerade” before agreeing to take their grievances to court. In mid-December Nourredine Adam, the head of an ex-Séléka faction that has clashed with UN peacekeepers, briefly declared an independent state in his north-eastern stronghold and promised to disrupt the election. He backed down a week later, having been nagged by the government of Chad and the leaders of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation.

Any of the armed groups currently running lucrative roadblocks and raking in money from diamonds, gold and coffee could spark a new round of conflict. There are also reports that the Lord’s Resistance Army, a brutal militia originally from Uganda, is still attacking and abducting civilians in CAR’s remote south-east. Joseph Kony, its elusive leader, is reputed to be hiding in Sudan.

CAR has never been well-governed. French colonialists looted it. Jean-Bédel Bokassa, the self-styled emperor who ruled from 1966 until 1979, looted it even more thoroughly. His 1977 coronation, featuring thoroughbred horses, a six-foot diamond-encrusted sceptre and a throne shaped like a golden eagle, cost $86m in today’s money. The country has seen five coups and numerous armed revolts. The average income is $320 a year. Life expectancy, at 50, is one of the lowest in the world.

The new president, whoever he is, will struggle to extend his authority over the lawless country, let alone disarm and reintegrate young rebels into a society with few formal jobs and lots of opportunities to make a living by the gun.